Bell Statistics

What is standard deviation?

Standard deviation measures how spread out a set of values is around their mean, in the same units as the data. A small value means observations cluster tightly; a large one means they scatter widely and any average taken from them is less informative.

Notation
σ
Also called
SD, sigma, spread
Allon Korem

Written by Allon Korem

Chief Executive Officer

Last updated

In plain English

An average on its own is close to useless. Two products can both average £40 per order — one because almost every order is between £35 and £45, the other because most orders are £12 and a handful are £900. Those are different businesses and they need different decisions, and the standard deviation is the number that tells them apart. It is the typical distance between an observation and the mean, expressed in the same units as the data, which is what makes it readable in a way variance is not.

The reason it appears in every statistical formula is that it drives precision. The standard error of a mean is the standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size, so a metric with twice the spread needs four times the observations to be measured as precisely. This is why an experiment on conversion rate is comfortable at fifty thousand users and the same experiment on revenue per user is not: revenue is far more variable, and the sample size required scales directly with the variance.

As a rule of thumb for roughly symmetric, bell-shaped data, about 68% of observations fall within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% within two and 99.7% within three. That rule is genuinely useful and genuinely fragile. It comes from the normal distribution, and business metrics are frequently nothing like normal — revenue per user is heavily right-skewed, with a long tail of large purchases — so applying it to skewed data produces confident nonsense such as intervals extending below zero on a quantity that cannot be negative.

Skew also makes the standard deviation itself unstable. Because deviations are squared, a single very large observation moves it far more than it moves the mean, so a metric with a fat tail has a standard deviation that jumps around between samples. That is why revenue experiments so often benefit from winsorising or capping extreme values, or from analysing a log transform: not to hide the outliers but to stop one customer's £40,000 order deciding the precision of the whole analysis.

One technical detail worth getting right: dividing by n − 1 rather than n. Using the sample mean to compute deviations makes them slightly too small, because the sample mean is by construction the point that minimises them, and n − 1 corrects that bias. At n = 1,000 it changes nothing you would notice; at n = 8 it matters, and it is the difference between the two buttons on a spreadsheet that people pick at random.

The formula

The square root of the average squared deviation. The n − 1 in the sample version is the only subtle part.

Sample standard deviation
s = √( Σ(xᵢ − x̄)² / (n − 1) )

n − 1 corrects for using the sample mean rather than the true one. This is the version you want almost always.

Population standard deviation
σ = √( Σ(xᵢ − μ)² / N )

For when you have every member of the population, which in practice is almost never.

For a proportion
σ = √( p(1 − p) )

Determined entirely by the rate, and maximised at p = 0.5. This is why low-conversion metrics need such large samples relative to their mean.

Standard error of the mean
SE = s / √n

The link between spread and precision — see the two-sample t-test calculator, which uses it directly.

Worked example

Two metrics from the same experiment population of 40,000 users per arm. Conversion runs at 4.0%. Revenue per user averages £6.80 with a standard deviation of £91, driven by a small number of very large orders.

Conversion rate
4.0%
SD of conversion
√(0.04 × 0.96) = 0.196
SE of conversion at n = 40,000
0.098 percentage points
Revenue per user
£6.80, SD £91
SE of revenue at n = 40,000
£0.455
Coefficient of variation
4.9 for conversion, 13.4 for revenue

Conversion can be measured to within about 0.1 percentage points — a 2.4% relative precision. Revenue can be measured to within £0.46, which is 6.7% of its own mean.

Same users, same experiment, and revenue is nearly three times harder to measure relative to its size. The coefficient of variation makes the comparison directly: revenue's spread is 13.4 times its mean, conversion's is 4.9 times. Because sample size scales with variance, closing that gap by traffic alone would need roughly seven times the users. The cheaper route is to attack the standard deviation itself — winsorising revenue at the 99th percentile typically cuts it by a third or more here, which is worth about half the sample, and [CUPED](/glossary/cuped) on a pre-period revenue covariate usually does more. Both decisions must be made before looking at results, or they become a way of choosing the answer.

Common misconceptions

About 95% of observations lie within two standard deviations of the mean.
That holds for roughly normal data and fails badly for skewed distributions. Revenue per user has a long right tail, so far more than 95% sit within two standard deviations below the mean and the interval extends below zero, which is impossible. Check the shape of the distribution before applying the rule.
A large standard deviation means the data are unreliable.
It means the underlying quantity genuinely varies, which is usually a fact about the world rather than a defect in the measurement. Customer spending really is highly variable. What it does mean is that more observations are needed to estimate the average precisely, which is a design consequence rather than a data-quality problem.
Standard deviation and standard error are two names for the same thing.
Standard deviation describes how spread out individual observations are and does not shrink as you collect more data. Standard error describes how precisely you have estimated a statistic and falls as 1/√n. Confusing them produces confidence intervals that are wrong by a factor of the square root of the sample size.

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between standard deviation and variance?
Variance is the average squared deviation from the mean; standard deviation is its square root. They carry identical information, and the difference is entirely about units and use. Standard deviation is in the units of the data, so it is what you report and interpret. Variance is what adds cleanly across independent sources, so it is what appears inside derivations and sample-size formulas.
Why divide by n − 1 instead of n?
Because deviations are measured from the sample mean, which is by construction the value that makes them as small as possible. That makes the raw average of squared deviations slightly too small as an estimate of the population's spread, and dividing by n − 1 corrects the bias. The distinction is immaterial in a large sample and matters in a small one, which is where estimates are least stable anyway.
Can I reduce the standard deviation of a metric?
You cannot change the underlying variation, but you can change what you measure. Capping or winsorising extreme values, analysing a log transform, choosing a metric less dominated by a heavy tail, or using pre-experiment data to strip out predictable differences between users all reduce the spread of the analysed quantity. Each of these is a legitimate design choice and must be fixed before results are seen, or it becomes a way of selecting an outcome.

Related terms

  • Central limit theorem

    Why averages go bell-shaped even when the data do not — the result that makes ordinary tests work.

  • Correlation

    How tightly two variables move together — bounded, unitless, and silent about cause.

  • Effect size

    How big the difference is — the number a p-value throws away and a business case runs on.

  • Normal distribution

    The bell curve — and why your skewed revenue data usually does not break the test anyway.

  • Outlier

    The extreme value that decides your result — and why the rule for handling it must precede the data.

  • Standard error

    How much your estimate would move if you ran the study again — precision, not spread.

  • Variance

    Spread in squared units — awkward to read, and the quantity every sample-size formula is built on.

Calculate it

  • Two-sample t-test

    Compare the average of two independent groups — plan the sample size, then test the result.

  • A/B test sample size

    Size a two-proportion experiment before you launch, then read the lift and its interval once it lands.

  • Paired t-test

    Before-and-after or matched pairs — size the study on the difference SD, then test it.

Knowing the term is the easy part

Applying it to a live measurement problem is the part that goes wrong. If you are designing an experiment, reading a result you do not trust, or trying to work out what your marketing actually caused, that is the work we do.

References

  • Moore, D. S., McCabe, G. P., & Craig, B. A. (2017). Introduction to the Practice of Statistics (9th ed.). W. H. Freeman.
  • Kohavi, R., Tang, D., & Xu, Y. (2020). Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments. Cambridge University Press.